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Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets By Andrew Smithers, Stephen Wright

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Sales Rank: #911199 in Books
Published on: 2000-03-24
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 1.40" h x 6.32" w x 9.31" l,
Binding: Hardcover
352 pages

Amazon.com Review
"Most books about the stock market tell you how to make money. This one ... will show you how to avoid losing it," begins this smart, blunt, cautionary tale based on Nobel laureate James Tobin's 1969 "q ratio," which posits, among other things, that no matter how bullish a market gets, it's bound to snap back into place at some point--and those who don't brace for the reversal will feel its sting. The authors, one a prominent asset-allocation adviser and the other a former head of macroeconomic forecasting for the Bank of England, warn that it's only a matter of time before the overexuberant market of the early 21st-century topples like its counterparts in 1929 and 1968. Here they set out to show why and how this will happen--as well as to tell stockholders what they should and should not do if they want to emerge intact.

After making a cogent new argument in defense of the still-controversial q ratio, the authors show how it plays into principles of stock-market risk and return, how it has determined the value of Wall Street in the past and will continue to do so, and how to apply it as a practical investing tool. They do a neat job of parsing the good and bad news about stocks as a sound investment for the future, and of what to do and not do with one's money come the inevitable bear market. From there, they get down to the nitty-gritty of valuing the stock market, providing four key tests for any indicator of value and explaining how to fold in such factors as the dividend yield, the price-earnings ratio, the adjusted price-earnings multiple, yield ratios, and yield differences. They wrap up with a look at what they call "the q debate" among both economists and stockbrokers, and finally, they apply the q ratio specifically to the U.S. economy, rebuking Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve for its role in what they see as the coming U.S. bubble burst.

With its plain English, helpful illustrated charts, vivid examples from history, and even the occasional employment of the likes of Alice in Wonderland to prove its points, Valuing Wall Street should be accessible to those with a working understanding of the market and economic principles. All told, this book is not so much a how-to as it is a theoretical forecast whose tidings investors might want heed as we near what Smithers and Wright warn are rough years ahead. --Timothy Murphy

Review
Analysts also believe the debate over stock market valuation will intensify in the weeks ahead thanks to the recent publication of two highly respected books that both forecast a coming bear market.

From the Back Cover

A Reality Check on Today's Stock MarketIncluding Easy-to-Follow Strategies for Protecting Your Assets.

"Wonderfully readable, this book's clear, direct logic borrows on Jim Tobin's concept of q to explain why the marvelous past is not only not prologue to perpetually higher and higher market valuations, but is the probable cuase of future returns being so small at best, and at worst, perhaps suddenly reversed."

Charles Ellis, Managing Partner, Greenwich Associates

"Andrew Smithers is one of the five best, most dispassionate, erudite analysts in the world. This is a book to read and chew on."

Barton Biggs, Global Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter

"It takes a brave man to forecast the movement of the markets. But Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright are the Cassandras of the New York Stock Exchange. Armed with an analysis based on q, the ratio between stock market prices and underlying capital value, they predict that the NYSE is facing a severe fall. They make their case clearly and forcefully. Investors should read and beware."

Professor Charles Goodhart, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England

"Andrew Smithers & Stephen Wright make a powerful economic argument that the New York stock market is 'wildly overpriced,' with shares 'at ridiculous levels,' calculated by them using Nobel Laureate James Tobin's q, or the ratio of share price to net worth of companies, at 1 1/2 times."

Professor Charles Kindleberger, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

"Smithers and Wright provide a guiding principle, based on theory, common sense and history, that should help all investorsprofessional or amateurachieve better long run returns at much lower risk. The authors are currently serious bears; to pay attention to their case now could be the reader's most important financial decision."

Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo

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